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Ajit Doval is NSA again with cabinet rank for another 5 years

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While on the one hand the formation of the BJP led NDA government after securing a landslide majority in the Lok Sabha for the second consecutive time has been completed with a 57 member two tier cabinet, elevating a career diplomat fmr IFS Subramanium Jaishankar as the Union External Affairs minister, the very close n most trusted leutinant of prime minister Narendra Modi and the country’s national security advisor Ajit Doval has also been accorded a second term as NSA for full five year term with a full fledged cabinet rank.

A five and a half decade old IPS Ajit Doval is most trusted bureaucrat of prime minister Narendra Modi who was called by him even days before prime minister Modi was officially sworn in as PM in 2014.

Ajit Doval had been the chief of the Intelligence bureau during the tenure of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee n deputy prime minister and home minister Lal Krishna Advani n was in their good books as a highly intelligent officer with immense precision and dedication.

Ajit Doval after retirement have been looking after the work of Vivekanand Foundation as its chief and had served in highly risky assignments for years in Golden temple operation, in Pakistan as an Indian spy and in operations in North Eastern sector as well.

After serving in the Intelligence bureau for thirty three protracted years Ajit Doval is a 1965 year Indian Police Service Officer having been retired in 2005.

His appointment will be co terminus with prime minister’s term until further orders whichever is earlier as per the orders issued by the Appointments Committee Secretary PK Tripathi dated June 2nd.

Having been honoured with the highest military honour Kirti Chakra for his outstanding n exemplary services for the first time as a police officer, Ajit Doval has played an extremely vital role as NSA in planning a strategy in gunning down 12 or more Nationalist Socialists Council of Nagaland terrorists in the Myanmar territory after they ambushed the Indian paramilitary jawans in 2015.

His role in the context of Surgical strikes inside Pak territories against the Uri attack and post Pulwama operation in Balakot have been highly appreciated.

Ajit Doval also played a very outstanding role in resolving the Doklam Stand off by his diplomatic initiatives in convincing the Chinese leadership through his extraordinary diplomatic acumen.

Ajit Doval had played a vital role with immense dexterity and diplomatic acumen making suitable environment and ground for prime minster’s foreign visits in US, China , Myanmar and other global nations including his role in United Nations as well.

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  1. Niharika Ghia

    June 3, 2019 at 11:11 AM

    Well deserved post to Shri Ajit Doval who has risked had life in Pakistan to keep Indians safe . He has played an important role in National Security and truely an asset to the nation

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Sunil Negi hails from Uttarakhand and is a veteran journalist and author. He is a prolific writer and has carved a name for himself in the media world. He received the 'Golden Achiever Award' in the '90th AIAC Excellence Awards 2019' for his book ''Havoc in Heaven'' based on the tragedy that struck Uttarakhand in which thousands of people lost their lives. He is also the President of Uttarakhand Journalists Forum and majorly writes on Politics, Current Affairs, and Social Issues.



1 Comment

  1. Niharika Ghia

    June 3, 2019 at 11:11 AM

    Well deserved post to Shri Ajit Doval who has risked had life in Pakistan to keep Indians safe . He has played an important role in National Security and truely an asset to the nation

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Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

EDITOR'S PICK

ART OF CRACKING CIVIL SERVICE EXAMINATION

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When we look up sky is the limit but on this earth cracking the civil service examination is the ultimate for each competitive aspirant. Every year 3 to 4 lacs students sit for the litmus test but less than thousands finally crossed the end hurdle. No doubt cracking the civil service examination, we need some preparation but it is not impossible. Aspirants from the word go must make the right strategy and select appropriate books and materials to conquer the test.

Most students prepare for the civil service examination after their graduation examination or after the publication of the result. But if you need a result in favor of your then start your preparation after 10th or at maximum 12th standard. Because NCERT books which you read in schooldays are the most basic essence or gateway to the temple of success.

Thinking of students who used to falter and those who finally come out as a winner, the basic difference is the right approach or strategy as books and materials are the same for each aspirant. History reminds us there are many instances where an average student achieve the miraculous feet if he or she has the zest, zen, and zeal to surpass their counterparts.  Before commencing the arduous journey aspirants must go through following aspects———-

  • Analyzing previous year questions with answers
  • Go through seriously and vividly The Hindu daily and mostly the editorial portion
  • Selecting the right books and avoiding unnecessary materials or books for the same subject(Take the help of good and right mentor)
  • Cover the entire syllabus because UPSC is unpredictable
  • Never prepare for preliminary examination only but for the main examination at the outset which will help you crack the prelims.
  • While studying any subject, start preparing probable and expected questions as per the syllabus and previous year questions.
  • Last but not the least commence your journey with the right strategy, appropriate approach and perfect attitude

Another important aspect of cracking the civil service examination is selecting the right coaching or guide as most of the students are unaware of the civil service examination.

May God bless you. Best of luck for upcoming exams and the rest of your life.

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Was Hemant Karkare a brutal, inhuman torture machine?

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Was Hemant Karkare a brutal, inhuman torture machine? Did he act illegally to prove the theory of Saffron Terrorism? Was he a puppet of the congress party’s political leaders? Did he arrest and inhumanly tortured innocent citizens to falsely implicate them in the theory of Saffron Terrorism?

Sadhvi Pragya’s statements on this have created a political storm. People who suffered because of Saffron Terrorism and people who suffered because of 26/11 have divergent views.

But what is the fact?

I am putting lot of information in front of you to decide. This analysis does not show any political inclination or any religious bias. You read it and you decide.

I have done more than three years of research on 26/11 and I collected a lot of information from various sources. I am writing a blog “Failed Journey of Saffron Terrorism” and the following details are from the same blog.

Home Ministry Under-Secretary Mr. Mani in his book – Hindu Terrorism.

Home Ministry Under-Secretary Mr. Mani has written in his book “Hindu Terrorism”. He has said, one day in 2006 he got a call from the home minister’s office asking him to come to see Home Minister immediately. Since all his seniors were out of the office and he was the senior most officer, he went to the Minister, Mr. Shivraj Patil’s chamber, who was Home Minister. There were two more people in the chamber before Mr. Mani went. One was Madhya Pradesh chief minister Mr. Digvijay Singh and second was a new face to Mr. Mani. Digvijay Singh introduced the second person as Mr. Hemant Karkare, IPS officer from Maharashtra cadre. Mr. Mani was wondering what a Maharashtra cadre IPS officer Karkare doing here with M.P. chief minister? What is the connection?

Slowly these two started a discussion about Saffron Terrorism, a term totally unheard by Mr. Mani earlier. They were talking about a fire and a small blast in the industrial area in Nanded. Apparently, a small scale manufacturing unit had caught fire and there was a small blast of some industrial gas cylinder. Local police had arrested the owner of the unit, named Mr. Kulkarni. The local police had a suspicion that Kulkarni deliberately set the fire to claim insurance. Mr. Mani could not give any inputs on this case because the Home Ministry had never heard of this incidence.

But Digvijay Singh and Karkare were discussing the possibility of converting this fire and the blast as an act of some sort of Saffron Terrorism. At that time, Mani had no idea what “Saffron Terrorism” was. With the conversation going on between Karkare and Digvijay Singh, Mr. Mani understood that Hemant Karkare did try to arrest Kulkarni for Saffron Terrorism but could not find enough evidence to prove the charges against Mr. Kulkarni and they had to let him go. Basically, Karkare was trying to “FIND” evidence to make arrests for Saffron Terrorism.

While all this was going on, home minister Shivraj Patil was sitting in a different area in his office. Being a Home Minister, he was not part of these discussions.

Meaning, UPA government was trying to create a false case on Saffron Terrorism.

No congress party leader has refuted these observations so far. This means Karkare was indeed colluding with Congress leaders to create false charges.

Now let’s check other aspects.

Let’s look into Lt. Colonel Purohit’s arrest

Lt. Colonel Purohit was the active army officer at the time of the arrest. He was not a regular infantry Colonel but was working in the highly sensitive department of Military Intelligence, or popularly known as M.I. The purpose of MI is to gather intelligence within the country and outside the country about the different threat perceptions and neutralize them. It is a very secretive department where only select few are inducted after a thorough invasive background check.

Officers working under this department often have to go deep undercover in the terrorist organization to gather intelligence. This is a very risky job because any small mistake can blow up their cover and they get killed. The undercover officers cannot always choose the “Right” way because, in their world, everything is in the shades of gray. Hence sometimes they may have to cross the lines to earn the trust of the bad people. But they do it for the country.

Their undercover job is so bad that their family never knows where they are, what is their new identity, what is the phone number to call and what is the email to connect. They have no contact with their family for months!!! The family gets the updates from the military only.

Arresting such a decorated and trusted military officer under the changes of terrorism was unbelievable. Arresting a military officer by the civilian authorities is not simple. The local police have to follow the protocols, which are as follows. If the arrest is made outside the military camp then police have to inform military within the stipulated time. If the person of interest is inside the military camp then police have to inform military establishment, give all the details of the case and then Military Police (MP) handover the suspect to the civilian police. In each case, the military would conduct its own internal investigation. But in colonel Purohit’s case, he was detained w/o any warrant (abducted) by Maharashtra ATS headed by Hemant Karkare and military was informed about his arrest after a couple of days.

Colonel Purohit was illegally arrested as follows.

While Colonel Purohit was attending a training course at Panchamarhi, MP, his superior Colonel R. K. Shrivastava issued the travel order for him to go to Delhi on 29th October 2008. Colonel R. K. Shrivastava accompanied him to the Bhopal Airport. But before reaching Bhopal airport, Colonel Shrivastava took away cell phone from Colonel Purohit and did not give him air tickets. It was Colonel Shrivastava who did the check in at the airport. After check in, Colonel Shrivasta told Colonel Purohit that they were going to Mumbai and not to Delhi. After hearing this, Colonel Purohit asked for the cell phone to inform his wife but Colonel Shrivastava threatened him for using the cell phone. As per the military practice, if the travel plan is changed then a new travel order has to be issued. In this case, the earlier order was to reach Delhi but it was changed to Mumbai, and as such, a new order should have been issued but his official travel order was not changed! If it was official business then why so much secrecy?

After reaching Mumbai airport late in the evening, Colonel Purohit was pushed into a private vehicle and was driven to a bungalow in Khandala. Hemant Karkare and his ATS team were waiting there. Hemant Karkare, Colonel Shrivastav, ATS deputy chief Parambir Singh (IPS) and his staff tortured Colonel Purohit beyond third degree and in a very inhuman way for a week. He broke several bones and ruptured several tissues. Finally, on 8th November 2008, Maharashtra ATS formally announced the arrest of Colonel Purohit.

Please watch the video of Colonel Purohit’s wife narrating how her husband was tortured by the ATS team led by Hemant Karkare.

In 2013 Colonel Purohit himself wrote a letter to the Human Rights Commission about the illegal detention and torture and copy of this letter was sent to then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Please see this news clip.

Please read the ACTUAL HANDWRITTEN LETTER written by Colonel Purohit to the Human Rights Commission.
Warning – This letter has a very graphic and disturbing description of the torture hence read it only if you feel comfortable.

Shocking letter by Colonel Purohit to Human Rights Commission exposes how he was tortured

No one from NHRC or PMO cared to investigate the charges leveled by Lt. Colonel Purohit. Why????

Otherwise very active NHRC chose to keep quiet.

Please note, in his letter Colonel Purohit says, at one point of time, his boss Colonel R. K. Shrivastava and Hemant Karkare talked about parading his mother, wife, and daughter naked in front of everyone. They also talked about bombing his house to kill his entire family. This was of course done to terrorize Colonel Purohit so as to get his confession but this shows how low Colonel R. K. Shrivastava and Hemant Karkare had scooped! Really shameful.

It did not end just with illegal arrest and torture. Karkare raided Lt. Col. Purohit’s house and announced, he recovered RDX from his house in Pune.

Karkare claimed that Lt. Col. Purohit stole the RDX from the military stock.

Now realize the situation here with your common sense. Lt. Col. Purohit is a highly trained military officer who knows about explosive. Would he keep a highly explosive material like RDX at his home where his family lives? Will he risk his neighbors and community, which is mainly Hindu? And he was arrested for supporting Saffron Terrorism?

Army refuted the charges of stealing of RDX from its stock saying Indian military does not use RDX hence they don’t carry any stock.

Then Hemant Karkare changed his story and said, this RDX was seized in a raid conducted by Lt. Col. Purohit in Kashmir and he stole some quantity from this lot. The same was used in the bombing of Samjhauta express, Malegaon bombing and rest was seized from his house in Pune.

Military again said, that raid in Kashmir was a joint operation and many military officers, local police officers were in that raid. It was not just Lt. Col. Purohit that was present and every gram of seized RDX is accounted for and there is no missing quantity.

What does this show? Was Karkare fabricating the evidence to implicate Lt. Col Purohit?

If this is true then it is completely deplorable. Treating an army officer in this way is disheartening. It is a shame and disgrace to the police uniform.

Karkare is dead but Prarambir Singh and Col. R. K. Shrivastav are still alive. They must be arrested based on Col. Purohit’s charges of torture and must be investigated.

Please note, Sadhvi Pragya too has leveled similar charges of torture against Karkare.

Now the following are my views.

If multiple people level charges on Karkare about false cases, illegal arrests, collecting illegal evidence and brutal torture charges then it must be investigated.

If these charges are found correct then his Ashok Chakra medal, his status of heroic death, his pension and all his medals must be stripped posthumously.

Similar punishment must be given to all the other police officers who were involved in the torture.

Col. R. K. Shrivastav should also be court marshaled and punished.

No one is above the law and no one should be treated softly because they died in action or they are rich and powerful.

Kishor Katti.

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Cricket

World cup cricket 2019 winner paranoia: Predicting the unpredictable

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Summer comes in many ways for Indians. But this English summer has brought a special sensation that is World Cup Cricket. The quadrennial event has given some respite to the cricket aficionados in this scorching weather. In India cricket is religion and Tendulkars, Kohlis and Dhonis are worshipped as semi-gods. Their fanatic fans cannot digest the defeat at any means. The stubborn cricket lovers are completely obsessed with the team’s success and ultimately want to see captain Kholi conquering the world. Now the question arises, Can India deliver the goods? If not India who else will clinch the title? Predicting the unpredictable definitely needs a hail out of something as cricket is uncertain.

Going by the format and fixtures as each team will lock horn with 9 remaining teams(in total 10 teams are participating), it is early days to define and predict the form and momentum of the teams. As all the 10 teams are looking ominous and any team can surprise the stronger opponent on their day. Critically dissecting the results of matches till now have been played, no team looks to be underdogs or a dark horse. For an instance West Indies stunned and bounced out Pakistan comprehensively but battered, bruised and rattled Pakistan checked the juggernaut of the tournament most favourite English team in a close encounter. Most Interestingly Afghanistan surpassed Pakistan in the warm-up matches. Similarly, Bangladesh overpowered South Africa and gave a scare to the only undefeated side in four matches Kiwis in a cliffhanger. England completely outplayed Bangladesh by their batsman’s brute force but simply can not underestimate and undermine them by this performance.

Coming back to another favourite Australia, started positively by winning comprehensively over Afghanistan but narrowly escaped after the top-order collapse and thanks to some rearguard action mostly by Coulter-neil now can be called as an all-rounder now in this format against West Indies.

Now come to the most fan follower side all over the world that is none other than team India. The team looks to be an awesome touch. Openers are firing at the top but an unfortunate and untimely injury to Dhawan can be a big blow to team India ‘s world cup winning chances. But India’s has the sufficienct supplement in the form of stylish Karnataka opener  KL Rahul and who is going to replace Dhawan the Delhi dasher Risbah Pant. Rohit Sharma scintillating century against South Africa shows how good player he is in this format as rightly said by his skipper as the best one till now. King Kohli as arguably and undoubtedly the best batsman in the current scenario can tear apart any bowling attack in the world. His insatiable hunger for runs and gigantic one-day record definitely give some strong messages to the opposition. The only matter of debate the number –four in batting order looks to be little fragile but it was bit settled in the form by stylish K.L Rahul but an injury to Dhawan and pushing him to the top –order can be a lacuna in that position. But with the inclusion of Pant, can play some mind games in the opposition camp. Apart from number four conundrum, all places in the side look more settled and strengthened. Indian middle order with two mavericks in the form of Kedar Jadhav and Mumbai hurricane Hardikya can blow away any batting line up. All these descriptions without magician Mahendra Singh Dhoni are seen incomplete. His Midas touch reminds the black magic of witch that not only makes possible the impossible but can snatch the win from the opposition’s jaw by a whisker and handing over most unwelcome and unexpected defeat in no time. Not only his batting prowess but his glove work behind the stumps has been clueless for the opponent. The legend from Ranchi contribution to the game does not end here as his gimmick of marshalling fielders in middle and death overs and timely suggestion to the bowlers still shows why he is the boss on the field. Virat probably is a rare and only captain ever played in this format to give such responsibility and respect to his ex-captain. This show how team India is gelling together and contributing to the team’s success.

After a detailed analysis of batting-depth and power, we must look at the what Indian bowling offers to the opposition. It is a balanced one with seam, swing, speed and spin, every angle as per possible covered. Jaspit Bumarah speed and deadly toe-crushing Yorker can be lethal to any opposition, both at the opening spell and slog overs. Bhuvaneswar Kumar has already shown his swing and seam skill in the English conditions in both the encounter India has faced. Not to forget the Bengal speedster Shami, quickest for India to take 100 wickets in this format can be a handy customer in this temperate English conditions. The troika pace battery of India has probably the best ever India has for long to represent a world cup cricket.

As the progress of the event and with summer coming hard to the English soil, pitches will play some tricks in terms of spinning options. The spin twins Kuldeep and Cahal offer the varieties and mysteries to play some stratagem in the opposition. They complement in such a way that opposition faces an uphill task to free from their tight grip in the crucial middle orders. They not only squeeze the opposition but their ability to give crucial and timely breakthrough can split the backbone of the counterpart.

Cricket is a funny game as we analyze past world cup winners, apart from mighty West –Indies in ’70s and ’80s and the invincible Aussies in twenty-first centuries all winners are underdogs. They came from nowhere to clinch the prestigious title in cricket history. Be it Kapil’s 83 or Border’s 87 and moving on to 1992 the Imran Khan’s Pakistan and most interestingly Arjuna Ranatunga’s 1996 all are dark horses at the outset of the tournament. Thinking about mercurial Pakistan who could have not been able to play the semis in 1992 but the rain washed away the against most favourite and strong opponent the then England encounter, gives an important one point edge over Aussies and Indies. Like bad weather, this time is looming over ICC event and three matches have already abandoned anything can happen to the outcome of the quadrennial event.

Another aspect probably has not been noticed that is in the last two world cup the host has triumphed the trophy. Going by that trend England chances are pretty high in this year event. It has all ticks in the column to be a champion side. They have been relentlessly playing some serious cricket since their miserable failure in 2015 world cup.

Whatever may be the outcome, the cricket will win at the end of the day. Chauvinistic crowds must have a lot to cheer not only sixers but the wickets and catches. Cricket is a game of momentum, the team picks themselves at the right time and remain calm and composed in crunch situations will clinch the most awaited cricket world cup 2019. Fingers crossed.

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The Impact of rise in fuel price on Indian Economy

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A sudden surge of fuel price has raised the eyebrows of many of us. Ordinary citizens of India begin to chide and criticize the govt policies and oil companies deregulation strategy as they have to shoulder the maximum brunt in many ways. But the bottom line is we simply unaware of the facts and figures that are controlling the price of fossil fuels. So it is high time we must aware of the intricacies and delicacies of a hike of fuel price and its subsequent effect on the economy

Fuel means coal, gas or oil which burns to gives us energy or heat. But in the broader economic terms we are more concerned about crude oil; i.e. petrol or diesel. The recent rise in the prices of crude oil has drawn everyone’s attention towards the crucial role that oil plays in the economy of any nation. Crude oil is one of the most necessitated commodities in the world and India imports around 100 million tons of crude oil and other petroleum products. This, in turn, results in spending huge amounts of foreign exchange.

In the Indian Context

The increasing quantum of imports of petroleum products has a significant impact on the Indian economy, especially when crude oil prices are shooting up globally. Crude oil not only serves as a source of energy but also as a major raw material to various industries. With no major discoveries in recent years, the increasing costs of production have pushed up crude oil prices globally. Also, the high volatility in the prices of oil breaching the $100/barrel mark and rising to a high of $147/barrel could be attributed to the fact that in the recent years, many index funds have taken positions in commodities considering oil to be an asset stock in their portfolios. It has been usually observed that in India, the pricing scheme is designed in such a way that it offers a system to moderate the soaring international oil prices and thereby study the impact on growth, inflation, etc.

Reasons for the surge

There has been a sharp hike in the prices of petrol and diesel since the “dynamic” daily pricing model for these fuels was introduced in India. Before accepting the causes of the surge, we must know how the crude oil price is designed.

How is the Indian crude basket calculated?

  • The Indian basket of crude oil basically represents a derived basket comprising Sour Grade and Sweet Grade of crude oil processed in Indian.
  • Prices of petrol and diesel have both been made market-determined. Since then, the Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are supposed to take appropriate decisions on the pricing of petrol and diesel. This is in line with international product prices and other market conditions such as the exchange rate and the demand-supply situation.
  • In 2017, the new dynamic daily pricing was introduced.

What does dynamic daily pricing system mean?

  • Dynamic daily pricing means the state retailers will reset the price of petrol and diesel each day, rather than wait for a fortnightly revision.
  • On a broad view, this move will align the retail pricing of crude products in line with price changes in the international markets. This will bring transparency in the pricing of crude products.
  • The companies will change the price of transport fuels every day based on crude price movements. Dynamic pricing is followed in many developed countries.
  • We can say therefore say that the retail fuel prices are expected to be more aligned to market dynamics.

What is the positive impact of dynamic daily pricing system?

  • This move is believed to crystallize the outlook for oil marketing companies marketing margin, or the difference between the cost of procurement and the price charged by retailer and therefore boost confidence over the overall sustainability of this broad deregulation initiative.
  • The shorter time lag between crude purchase and products sales will collapse, thus allowing prices to reflect cost and avoid artificial distortions.
  • It will enhance OMCs’ ability to pass the prices into the economy more effectively.
  • Global experience shows that the current dynamic pricing of fuel has the potential to attract the participation of private players in fuel retailing and several downstream opportunities, thus exposing the downstream and marketing to best practices and modern technology in refining.
  • A liberalized retailing regime may also expose the PSUs into an intensive competitive scenario.

What is the negative impact of dynamic daily pricing system?

  • Consumers may be affected sometimes, especially if there is a major international event, like a war or riot. Then, the prices may fluctuate a lot. It can become expensive or cheap, depending on the nature of the incident.
  • Prices of FMCG goods may also fluctuate dynamically. FMCG prices are directly related to fuel prices. Now, if the fuel prices suddenly increase, then there are chances that FMCG products pricing may also fluctuate, and sometimes daily.

What explains the divergence in the movements of the crude basket and of retail prices?

  • With global crude oil prices plummeting to record lows when it took charge, the government resorted to a series of excise duty hikes in the second half of 2015 and the initial months of 2016 on both petrol and diesel to help shore up finances.
  • This has helped the Centre realize higher central excise duties primarily through the increased tax on petrol and diesel, which are still outside the ambit of GST.
  • In India, the share of taxes in the retail selling prices of petrol and diesel (as on July 16) was 55.5% and 47.3% respectively, with central taxes (essentially excise duty) accounting for the bulk of it.

What other variables are involved?

  • The price is determined not only by the movement of crude oil price (the main raw material), but also by the rupee/dollar exchange rate and the demand-supply situation in the market.
  • While a deficit of the product leads to a rise in its price, an increase in supply will lead to a decrease.
  • Over the first nine months of the calendar year 2017, the global crude oil price for the Indian basket fell by 0.44% while the price of petrol (in Delhi) came down by 0.3%.
  • This is despite the fact that the rupee strengthened against the dollar by nearly 7%, something that would have translated into sharply cheaper imported oil.

How has the government justified the excise hikes?

  • The government has defended the higher duty and said that increased revenue was going into welfare activities of building more roads and providing irrigation and drinking water facilities.
  • Government has said that oil companies would continue to have pricing freedom.
  • The government says that one part of the fall in oil prices as a part of proper economic and fiscal planning goes to the consumer.
  • The second part is going to developmental activities, particularly national highways and rural roads, because those who consume petrol and diesel drive vehicles on these roads, and they must pay for it.
  • The third part is consumed by the states by way of VAT.
  • Of what the central government gets, 42% is being passed on to the states.
  • And for the fourth and final part, it goes to the oil companies for the reason that when oil companies make international purchases against future purchases, they suffer a huge loss.

Why the prices have increased/Causes

  • Variation in supply
  • Stronger dollar
  • Import-dependent
  • Sanctions on Iran

Oil and Iran

  • India purchases 10% of its requirement from Iran
  • It is also 3rd largest supplier to India
  • It provides a credit of 60 days
  • Iran supplies 2.4 MN barrels per day of crude to the international market
  • The value of import bill for oil increased by 76% in July from a year earlier to $10.2 bn, which pushed up the trade deficit to more than $18 bn (the highest in five years). The increasing crude oil prices will ensure that the CAD will reach 2.6% of GDP in this financial year from 1.5% a year ago

According to the recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) by the IMF, roughly 80% of the recent oil price increase was caused by deterioration in supply conditions. This, however, is not the only study on the factors leading to higher crude prices.3. The “Oil Price Dynamics” report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that less than two-fifths of the rise in oil prices since the beginning of 2018 was on account of supply-side factors.4These contrasting studies lead to uncertainty regarding the sustainability of higher crude prices

Impacts on Indian economy: The unbearable effects –

Impact on national income

According to RBI sources, for every unit dollar increase in crude oil price, WPI inflation rises by 30 basis points. India, the world’s seventh-largest economy, was a key beneficiary of falling crude oil prices between 2013 and 2015. An analysis by this newspaper, more than a year ago, had indicated that almost the entire reduction of about 0.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in India’s fiscal deficit between FY14 and FY16 could be attributed to the sharp fall in crude prices. Lower crude prices also contributed to the narrower current account deficit. The biggest benefit of the fall in oil prices was evident in narrower twin deficits. Since the pass-through of the fall in crude prices to retail consumers was limited (the government retained a large part of the benefits by hiking excise duty on retail fuel products), the direct impact on inflation—measured by consumer price index (CPI)—was muted.

Things, however, started reversing about two years ago and have gathered pace in the past few months. As against an average price of $46.2/barrel for the Indian basket of crude oil in FY16, it rose to $56.4/barrel in FY18 and averaged $65/barrel in the fourth quarter of FY18. With the US’ decision to walk away from the Iran nuclear deal and to re-impose sanctions on Iran, upside risks to crude prices cannot be ruled out. It is then worth understanding the impact of higher crude prices on the Indian economy.

In short, one could safely conclude that higher crude prices will adversely affect the twin deficits—fiscal and current account deficit—of the economy, which will have spillover impact on the monetary policy, and consumption and investment behavior in the economy. However, before we talk about the impact in numbers, it is important to address one tricky question: “what is driving higher crude prices?”

The question is relevant because the factors leading to change in prices will decide the sustainability of the higher prices.

If the rise can be attributed to demand-side factors, it is not necessarily adverse for economic activity or financial markets. The higher crude oil imports bill could be offset by higher oil and non-oil exports (and of course, remittances). Similarly, better domestic economic activity could help meet fiscal deficit targets. However, if oil prices are pushed up by supply factors, it would be concerning.

According to the recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), roughly 80% of the recent oil price increase was caused by deterioration in supply conditions (particularly faster-than-expected deterioration in Venezuelan output). This, however, is not the only study on the factors leading to higher crude prices. The “Oil Price Dynamics” report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that less than two-fifths of the rise in oil prices since the beginning of 2018 was on account of supply-side factors. These contrasting studies lead to uncertainty regarding the sustainability of higher crude prices.

Not surprisingly then, the majority of the forecasts for oil price remain at $65-70/barrel. An increase of 15-25% in oil prices in one year will impact the Indian economy in various ways.

Impact on fiscal math

As a rule of the thumb, an increase of $10 per barrel in crude prices will lead to an increase of about Rs17,000 crore (or $2.5 billion at an exchange rate of 67/$) in fuel subsidies, equivalent to 0.09% of GDP. In the Union Budget 2018-19, the government had budgeted for petroleum subsidy of Rs25,000 crore, similar to that in FY18.

Our calculations, however, suggest that fuel subsidy could be as high as Rs54,000 crore if crude price averages $65/barrel in FY19. Additionally, a cut of Re1 in excise duty for both petrol and diesel will lead to an annual revenue loss of Rs12,000-13,000 crore (or 0.065% of GDP). It remains to be seen if the excise duty cut can be resisted by the government, considering that the general election is less than a year away now.

Impact on current account deficit

As a rule of thumb, an increase of $10 per barrel in crude oil prices will lead to an adverse impact of $10-11 billion (or 0.4% of GDP) on current account deficit. There are two opposite forces at work in the current account deficit. Higher oil prices will push the import bill higher; however, it will be partly offset by higher oil exports and better remittances. The latter will materialize since more than half of India’s remittances are reported to be channeled through the Gulf countries, which are likely to witness better economic conditions with higher oil prices. If we talk in numbers, an increase of $10 per barrel in crude prices will push the merchandise imports to bill up by about $20 billion, which will be partly offset by an increase of about $6 billion in oil exports and $3-4 billion in workers’ remittances.

Impact on inflation

With a weightage of only 2.4% in headline CPI, the adverse impact will entirely depend on the extent to which higher crude oil prices are passed on to the consumers. Considering the general election next year, it is difficult to envisage a significant hike in retail fuel prices, and thus, the direct impact on CPI inflation is likely to remain muted.

Overall, the windfall gains—in terms of lower subsidy and higher revenue for the government, and lower imports—from lower crude prices are behind us.

Looking ahead

The soaring price of oil is having a major influence on India’s economy. India spends a lot of money financially supporting its citizens with fuel every year. Petrol in India is a lot cheaper than it should be. However, Oil firms in India are still buying oil at international market value. Therefore, Indian oil firms are hemorrhaging money at $100 million a day. There will be more difficulties faced if the price increases any further. It is understandable that the government is receiving complaints to raise the price of fuel by the oil companies but politically it is an unfavorable thing to do as members have to win election votes.

The political disturbances in the Middle East recently due to Iran and other countries have increased anxieties of the Finance Minister who has to smooth over conflicts for the home consumers. The question about oil production and availability has led to rising apprehensions. The minister spoke out about the situation saying they were in touch with the Petroleum Ministry and would take steps to settle the undesirable effect of high energy costs on the public. His reasoning was that when prices reached $147 a barrel that they managed the situation. Political turmoil in Egypt has resulted in crude oil prices going past 100 dollars a barrel which has led to the outcome of prince increases in all major oil importing countries like India. High global oil prices increase the government funding bill and broaden the trade decrease as India starts importing much more than it exports. India already imports three-quarters of its fuel needs. State-run firms like Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum will bear the brunt of severe revenue shortages. In 2010-11, the under-recovery of oil firms is estimated to exceed Rs. 700 billion leaving the government to pay the rest of it as a subsidy. Modi led government put in fuel reforms by deregulating petrol prices and raising prices of diesel, kerosene, and LPG to cut its subsidies and fiscal losses.

Since the past couple of years, India has maintained steady and rapid development and has infused vigor into global economic growth. The world will be a big factor in its coming improvement as India will not be able to progress without it. In approximately twenty years India will make historic inputs into the development of the global economy by the expansion of foreign trade and expansion and development in the west. It will improve its overseas investor relationships and have better business outlooks. Overseas investments will have to be guided and supported by competitive businesses and have to complete complex types of economic and technological collaboration with improved quality and benefits for both organizations. India will also have to diversity and increase its bilateral, multilateral and regional economic assistance so they can have mutual development and a global strategy in all countries and regions around the world.

India’s economy has enjoyed sustained progress in recent times. In comparison to the global economies, India’s has had a nice steady momentum with fewer fluctuations. India’s information industry has been the cause of rapid improvement with developments in language and human talent. The service industry has taken leaps and attracted many investors, therefore leading to the manufacturing industry getting less focus. India’s government has also had encouragement endeavors that have promoted growth.

There are still many hurdles to face before India’s economy can reach greater heights. Economists say that there will be great progress as well as many challenges in the future. The government especially has to start successful policies to cope with any downfalls. The most crucial problem faced by the government at the moment is current inflation due to an exponentially expanding economy. Only the passing of time can say how India’s economy will adapt to the increasingly bleak global economic climate.

Global oil prices are becoming increasingly market-oriented. Thus, dynamic fuel pricing will improve the competitiveness of the economy overall. It would also bring in transparency in fuel pricing and incentivize investments in the oil sector.

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Huge jolt to Congress. 12 out of 18 MLAs join TRS in Telangana state

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Loyal Congress MLAs at Hydrabad assembly protesting against the merger of 12 Congress lawmakers with TRS
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The Congress party which has already suffered a huge drubbing in the the general elections by securing merely 52 parliamentary seats has suffered one more jolt in Telangana state carved out of Andhra Pradesh when its 12 lawmakers met the speaker of Telangana Assembly and handed him a signed letter of consent by 12 MLAs expressing their consent to join the Telangana Rashta Samiti the ruling party with 88 MLAs. The Congress party had 18 MLAs out of which one MLA had contested from a regional party as a parliamentary candidate and won the election.

After switching over sides from Congress to Telangana the strength of the Congress party in the Aseembly has been reduced to mere five. It’s indeed a huge setback to the Congress party as the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti Party’s strength has gone up to 100 in the house of 120. The Telangana Congress Committee chief V Hanumatha Rao has accused the chief minister of instigating n allegedly purchasing the Congress MLAs to dislodge the party in the state.

The defecting Congress MLAs under the anti defection law norms require two thirds number that comes to 6 by just double the numbers of Congress MLAs have crossed the floor having no apprehension of losing their membership.

It is believed that after the drubbing of Congress party in the state and at the centre the Congress MLAs were finding their political career in stake in Telangana and crossed the floor joining the TRS.

It may be recalled that Telangana Rashtra Samittee was founded on 27th April 2001 by its founder C. Chandra Shekar Rao with the sole objective to form the Telangana separate state. C. Chandra Shekhar Rao is currently the CM of Telangana state and president of the party as well.

Meanwhile the remaining five Congress MLAs held a protest sit in outside the Assembly in Telangana accusing CM C Chandra Shekhar Rao of allegedly purchasing the Congress MLAs nad pre strategically dislodging their party in the state.

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Delhi

Weak pre monsoon rains led to unbeareable hot summers of June

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The summer season is tremendously hot with unbearable heat waves with Delhi temperature nearing 45 degrees celcius and Churu in Rajasthan crossing 49 degrees celcius creating havoc to environment and human lives.

The increasing global warming due to excessive green house emissions especially in crowded cities and towns like the capital city of India Delhi where vehicles, automobiles, use of air conditioners and other electronic gadgets including multiple construction activities and depleting forest cover has further multiplied the crisis.

The loss of pre monsoon rains has also added to the woes of the countrymen with heat waves taking the human toll and making peoples’ lives hell.

The environment is full of unbeareable heat waves equalizing the furnace heat impact.

While the nation is confronted with unbeareable hot summer with not reprieve in sight, the meteorological department predicts the monsoon hitting the Kerala Coast on June 8th.

The reason of this uncontrollable hot temperature is mainly due to the tremendous shortage in the pre monsoon rainfall during the last 65 years which is a record in itself.

According to the editorial in one of the leading English daily HT, the three month pre monsoon season March April and May ended with a rainfall deficiency of 25%.

This has resulted in several parts of the country confronted with immense drought like situation while many suffering from excessive unbearable heat waves.

A robust pre monsoon could have made the summer beareable, made the reserviors full of capacity ( just 20% water was left in major reserviors of the country numbering 91 on June 2nd) replenished the soil moisture and helped the agrarian sector.

While shortage of pre monsoon rainfall has badly affected the agrarian sector of the country it has also negatively impacted the Himalayan states where forest fires have created havoc badly impacting and destroying the flora and fauna.

While in the entire country there have been major 192 incidents of forest fires resulting in deaths of animals living in jungles and to human lives as well this year, in the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand there had been hundreds of forest fire incidents leading to collosal loss of hundreds of crores of Rupees and its flora and fauna.

Just yesterday a leopard was found floating in dead condition, in one of the Garhwal rivers after having been killed in a massive forest fire. More than 20 peoole have been killed in Uttarakjand while dowsing fire in the jungles.

During summers, especially in May June the hot winds and dry leaves and pine needles become excessively prone to forest fires when temperature soar beyond limit.

Not only this but the jungle mafias, hand in glove with some corrupt forest officials deliberately create forest fires to encourage illegal sale of timber under the guise of heavy trees considered as half burnt and as waste material.

This shabby business is going on for years. In addition to this arbitrary practice various NGOs or forest department people who fudge the government money in lakhs n crores create pre strategic forest fires to falsely show their plantations as damaged due to these fires whereas in reality not a single plant or tree is planted in actuality.

Thus a massive government allocation in the name of forest tree plantation is siphoned off under the garb of forest fires in league with officials of the concerned department.

Conclusively it can be said that the excessively rising global temperature due to the green house gases’ emissions, depleting forests and global warning affecting the monsoon ultimately affects the agrarian sector, the food security, the future of children and countrymen and the progress of the nation by bringing down its GDP.

It’s therefore the collective responsibility of all global nations, its people and the governments to plant more and more trees, increase depleting forest cover, lessen green house gas emissions, save and conserve rain water, give up using vehicles cars with diesal, use solar energy than other form of fuels, lessen the use of air conditioners and use car pool system in your locality alternatively than using single cars with a single occupant.

If adhered to these principles the society can to a great extent minimise the negative impact and implications of global warming. What’s your take friends?

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Home minister Amit Shah to get rid Kashmir of terrorists. List to eliminate top ten terrorists ready.

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The count down of ten dreaded terrorists of Al Badra, Hizbul Mujahiddin and Laskare Taiyyeba active in Kashmir valley has begun.

Sources reveal that after the assumption of charge at the centre as union home minister Amit Shah has held number of crucial meetings with the governor of Jammu n Kashmir Satyapal Malik n union home secretary to devise ways and means to counter terrorism n eliminate hardcore ten terrorists from strife torn Jammu and Kashmir at the earliest. Just a few days ago the Indian Army troopers have killed a most wanted Hizbul Mujhahiddeen terrorist Rashid Bhatt Moosa in Tral Kashmir.

The Amarnath Yatra is to start from first July and the government of J&K as well as the union government are making their best efforts to ensure hassle free Yatra for the convenience of the pilgrims.

A hit list of ten dreaded terrorists have been prepared by the union home ministry in connivance with defence minstry headed by Rajnath Singh, active in the valley who are under the lens and target of the para military forces and Army and are likely to be eliminated in the near future.

Home minister Amit Shah is hell bent upon eliminate terrorism from Jammu Kashmir and the BJP’s election menifesto of 2016 has also assured the countrymen of abrogating article 370 and section 35 A from J and K.

Meanwhile, on the ocassion of Eid there had been incidents of stone throwing at the army jawans on petrol duty in Kashmir valley and the people raised pro Pakistan ans ISI flags and slogans outside Juma Masjid in Srinagar Kashmir.

The pro Pakistan protestors were also holding the pictures of dreaded terrorist Musa and Burhaan Vani and raising slogans hailing them.

There has been an incident of terrorist attack as well in the valley in which a person have been killed.

The situation in Kashmir valley is deteriorating day by day and going out of hand.

Union Home minister Amit Shah after taking charge has made it his first priority issue and is working hard to eliminate the hard core pro Pakistan terrorists from Kashmir valley followed by applying control on the stone pelters who are provoked n enthused by the pro Pakistan organisations active in the valley.

Meanwhile the Commanding in Chief of Northern Command has revealed that about 86 terrorists have been gunned down this year and 20 ultras have been arrested with one brought into mainstream with the help of his parents.

The list of ten hardcore Lashkare Tayyebba, Hizhbul Mujahiddin and AlBadr terrorist organisations funded n patronised by Pakistan in Kashmir include Huzbul Mizahiddeen chief Riraz Ahmed Naiku, Ashraf Khan active in Srinagar, Meharajjidin in Baramulla, Dr. Saifulla in Srinagar, Azaz Ahmed Mullick in Kupwara and Arshid Ul Haque in Pulwama.

Lt. Genl Ranbir Singh said that the anti terrorists cobat operation will continue till the last until Kashmir fully returns to normalcyand cmpletely gets rid f the ultras.

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Jaishankar’s entry in Union cabinet reminds us of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s entry in Narsimha Rao’s cabinet in 1991

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Foreign minister S. Jaishankar, NSA Doval deliberating with PM Modi
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The Indian Foreign Service officer of 1977 batch n former Secretary of Foreign Affairs, brilliant bureaucrat Subramaniam Jaishankar’s entry in prime minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet as foreign minister is being lauded across political spectrum.

Even the arch rival of the Bhartiya Janata Party, the Congress party’s spokesperson Mir Afzal has lauded the induction of former foreign secretary S. Jaishankar in Modi’s cabinet as foreign minister saying that his vast experience as the foreign secretary n as High Commissioner n ambassador of China, United States of America and Pakistan would contribute immensely in strengthening our foreign policy and enhancing good relations with these two super powers, especially Pakistan with which India’s relations are quite strained n need urgent repair n resurrection.

It is relably learnt that the role of the national security advisor Ajit Doval who is considered to be the ear n most trusted lieutenant of prime minister Modi has played a pivotal role in advising the prime minister to use the services of Subramaniam Jaishankar.

It may be recalled that in 1991 when the country’s economy was in doldrums the then prime minister P. V. Narsimha Rao has specifically brought Dr. Manmohan Singh into his cabinet as the Finance minister being an expert economist n former governor of Reserve Bank of India.

Dr. Monmohan Singh had then played a pivital role in opening the squeezed economy by liberising it leading to myriad foreign investment in the country n opening the doors for big business houses to expand themselves thus closing the licence raj culture.

Similarly, the prime minister Narendra Modi has tested the outstanding contribution and role of S. Jaishankar as the foreign minister n as high commissioner n ambassador to China, USA n Pakistan and finally rewarded him with the most significant role.

Since coming to power in 2014 n again seeking a historic majority in 2019 the prime minister’s special emphasis has been on strengthening the foreign policy n maitaining healthiest relations with US, China, SAARC, BIMSTEC and other NATO countries in order to decisively counter international terrorism n sideline Pakistan in the global diplomatic scenerio.

And highly specialist foreign expert Subramaniam Jaishankar is the best choice to not only improve friendly relations with foreign powerful nations but to also assist the prime minister in these endeavours.

The challenge on the foreign policy front is tremendous n S. Jayshanker has now in his capacity as the foreign minister has to primarily work hard n with dexterity on three fronts (1) to establish proper coordination with countries like US, China, UK, Gulf countries, Japan, France, n other European nations in order to unite them against international terrorism especially sidelining Pakistan or improving relations with our neighbours (2) to energise efforts to get the veto power and membership in the United Nations Security Council n (3) to lobby for India in order to help include India in the elite Nucleur Supplies Group for which lots of efforts had been made in the past but Pakistan’s traditional friend China had created bottlenecks in India’s every move, thus keeping it away from NSG.

It may be recalled that Subramanium Jaishaker has come in prime minister Modi’s confidence in the year 2013 when the latter visited China in his capacity of Gujarat CM. Mr. Jaishankar was then the ambassador to China. Sources reveal that Mr. Jaishankar was of immense help to him during his visit by way of establishing Modi’s contact with Chinese leadership n bureaucracy.

Thereafter when Mr. Modi visited US during his first tenure in 2014 not only had the then US ambassador Jaishankar helped the PM in all his diplomatic moves but had also convinced the then US president Barak Obama visit India as the chief guest at the Republic Day function which got materialised within no time.

Moreover the prime minister would be visiting foreign nations in the months to come, especially in Shaghai Corporation Organisation meet and G 20 summit where he will also meet several important foreign heads including the Pakistan PM Imran Khan. New foreign minister Jaishankar’s role becomes all the more significant in view of the prime ministers global visits in these significant meetings.

It may be recalled that Subramaniam Jaishankar is a second career diplomat to assume the charge as foreign minister
after K. Natwar Singh of Congress years ago. Natwar Singh however had an unceremonious exit from Rajiv Gandhi cabinet during the nineties in a controversy related to bribe for Iraq oil by his son.

Now S. Jaishankar will have to become the Rajya Sabha MP or contest for Lok Sabha within six months of holding the office of the foreign minister.

It is believed that the trioka of NSA Ajit Doval, foreign minister S. Jaishankar n PM Narendra Modi will make wonders in foreign policy issues giving India a lead in the months to come.

The Doklam stand off issue had been resolved by the NSA Ajit Doval alongwith the then foreign secretary Jay Shankar who had also been responsible for maitaining good n balanced relations with US n China especially in the context of mutual trade n pressuring Pakistan to give up aiding n abetting terrorism and also to convince the world powers about its open n clear cut involvement in running terror sanctuaries in Pakistan n using them against India for destabilisation n disturbances in already strife torn Kashmir n in other parts of Asia.

What’s your take friends?

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EDITOR'S PICK

Know The Top Localities To Invest In Noida

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Noida has always been a hot spot investment destination among property buyers after Delhi. Being well-connected to NationalCapital and other NCR regions via metro, highways, and expressways, there has been a huge demand for residential units among homebuyers. Moreover, in recent years, many new localities have emerged in Noida that are offering many affordable as well as luxury options to the homebuyers. Take a look at some of the top localities which are best to invest in Noida:

Sector- 150

This sector is emerging as one of the most lucrative investment options in recent times. Poised as one of the greenest sectors of Noida, the authority has already planned to develop this sector as a sports hub of Noida. This sector boasts mostly luxury properties from renowned developers like ATS, TATA, Godrej, etc. One can easily invest in spacious 3 and 4 BHK apartments as well as luxurious villas. Banging on Noida-Greater Noida expressway, the sector is surrounded by leading IT Companies, MNCs, educational institutions, etc. The Aqua Line Metro also passes through this area. The average property price in this sector is Rs 5,141 per sqft.

Sector- 75

Another sector which is quite popular amongst home buyers is sector-75. This sector is well-connected to Greater Noida and Delhi as Metro’s Aqua Line and Blue Line are in proximity to this locality. It is also surrounded by commercial hubs of Noida like sector- 100,104, 107,110,113, etc. The area has many ready to move in developments from leading developers. The average property price in this sector is Rs 5,145 per sqft.

Sector-74

This sector also boasts seamless connectivity to other surrounding areas via a well-established metro corridor as well as Noida-Greater Noida Expressway. Most of the properties here fall in the premium and luxury segment. The average property price in this sector is Rs 4,892 per sqft.

Sector- 121

This sector is close to upcoming FNG Expressway and Noida commercial hubs like sector- 62, 63, 68, 71 and Sector 123.  One can easily get 1 BHK to 4 BHK apartments in this sector. Some of the leading developers present in this locality are ABA corp, Ajnara, Gulshan, etc.

The average property price in this sector is Rs 6,583 per sqft.

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Delhi

PM Modi seeks former president Pranav Da’s blessings. Meets him at his Delhi house

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The prime minster designate to be formally sworn in on 30th May as the country’s 17th prime minister, second time in succession, Narendra Modi today drove to the former president of India’s Delhi residence alongwith his cavalcade and sought Pranav da’s blessings.

He presented a bouquet to the former president Pranav da who always lauded Mr. Modi as a highly sensible and adorable prime minister of the country.

Though having been union minister several times in Congress n UPA central governments and a secular leader to the core, Pranav Da as he is fondly addressed out of reverrence, has always been prime minister Narendra Modi’s admirer as the president of India n has also been the chief guest as ex president in the national annual convocation of the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh in Nagpur, duly invited by the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat.

Prime minister designate Narendra Modi always considered him as a fatherly figure. The former president Pranav Mukerjee greeted Narendra Modi with ecstacy n wished him all the very best for his second tenure as the prime minister of BJP led NDA government at the centre. He served sweets to Narendra Modi personally.

It may be recalled that prime minister Narendra Modi has been on the move since winning the elections with a landslide victory margin with 353 MPs in Lok Sabha.

He had personally visited the residences of the party veterans n former deputy prime minister n union minster Lal Krishna Advani n Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi and sought their blessings by touching their feet.

He then went to meet his aged mother Heeraben n sought her blessings. On the third day he was in Varanasi his parliamentary constituency on a thanks giving tour and also to seek the blessings of Lord Shiva at famous ancient Kashi Vishwanath Temple. PM Modi won with a handsome margin of 4.5 lakh votes.

Two days prior to the last and seventh phase of polling , prime minister Modi also visited the renowned ancient Kedarnath and Badrinath Shrines forthe fourth time and also meditated for whole night in a cave, two kilometres away from snow clad Kedarnath shrine.

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