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The humongous victory of the Bhartiya Janata Party in 14 out of 16 municipal mayoral elections and also the landslide victory in majority of the municipal councils under the leadership of the Uttar Pradesh Chief minister and a saffron robed saint turned politician Yogi Adityanath who represented Gorakhpur for five terms as an elected member of parliament in the Lok Sabha has made one thing unambiguos that even after the demonetisation and GST the Modi factor is still relevant in the Indian politics at grassroots of Uttar Pradesh and those at the lowest ebb of the society including the farming and trading community including the government servants and those in private jobs are happy and pleased with the leadership of Yogi Adityanath who is at the helm of the affairs in the largest state of the country for the last eighth month or so.

These election results with a resounding majority in the Ayodhya Faizabad municipal corporation also reflects clearly that the electorates are fully under the influence of saffron effect and the factor of majoriatarianism did played a pivotal role in voting in favourof BJP wedded to the cause of Ram Lala and subsequent construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya despitethe fact that the matter is still subjudiced. Though it is a known fact that the elections of municipal corporations and councils are usually fought on local issues of development but the way Uttar Pradesh Chief minister has made these elections a prestige issue and campaigned extensively through more than 136 public meetings and also assured the electorates on development plank apart from other significant issues it’s now absolutely clear that the voters at the ground level have for the second time reposed full fledged support to his leadership compounded with Modi charisma.

In a way the mandate in the UP municipal elections to BJP has been the mandate for development, law and order improvement and the dynamic and dashing leadership of PM Narendra Modi as well as the UP CM Yogi Adityanath. This victory therefore is bound to have a positive impact in the ensuing Gujarat elections going to poll on 9th and 14th December as well where the Bhartiya Janata Party has almost concentrated fully with more than fifty ministers and myriad number of national and regional leaders relentlessly campaigning to counter the ongoing influence and political jaggernaut of Nehru Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi, Patidar leader Hardik Patel, OBC and Dalit leaders Alpesh Thakur and Bhavesh Jignesh. The way the BJP has established its overwhelming majority in majority of the Uttar Pradesh Corporation and Council elections winning mayoral seats in 14 out of 16 municipal corporations and keeping the Congress at distant third with SP and BSP second and third clearly speaks of the fact that no single anti BJP opposition party can counter the latter in any election singularly till the entire opposition do not unite together forgetting their political and ideological differences.

This election result is definitely a dangerous signal for Congress and other UPA partners of the country for 2019 general elections. If the trend of pro BJP voting continues unabatedly in the same manner as are the results in the largest state of the country, UP then there is no doubt that the ruling party at the centre and Uttar Pradesh is all set to win the national elections of 2019 as well.

Keeping in view the incessant triumph of the BJP right from the elections of the various states starting from replacing Congress from its citadel in Assam to repeating in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh to badly defeating the ruling party SP and BSP from its strong political haven UP to Uttarakhand, again compelling the  Congress  to bite the dust and forming BJP governments in GOA and Manipur despite losing at the hands of its permanent bete noire Congress and finally the landslide victory in UP municipal elections it has now become absolutely clear that Narendra Modi’s streak to win has in no way lessened but has instead gained a further momentum making everyone shocked, astonished and surprised. If the victory streak still continues in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as well where results are expected on 19th December it would almost be confirmed that 2019 will also be Modi’s way, repeating again the top slot for the second time in succession after his assuming the most important office of the the prime ministership of India, the world’s largest democracy in 2014 against all odds and heightened challenges. What’s your take on this friends?

SUNIL NEGI

 

 

 

 

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Kairana by poll significant to test BSP, SP’s political clout in UP after victories in Phulpur n Sitapur

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The byelection in Kairana, Uttar Pradesh slated for May 28 is going to be the barometer of the popularity of prime minister Narendra Modi, the BJP as well as the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath. It will on the other hand also test the relevance and significance of the anti BJP opposition front or alliance that is slowly but steadily taking final shape against the BJP and Modi, particularly in view of the 2019 general elections. It’s primarily again a litmus lest for the SP, BSP combine who are outrightly backing the RLD candidate in Kairana after having earlier scored victries in two bye elections

Though the byelections are also being held in Palaghat and two other parliamentary constituencies and 28 assembly seats in other states including Noorpur in UP but Kairana by poll is important because its the parliamentary seat of the largest state which brings 80 MPs in Lok Sabha and several law makers in the upper house and also impacts the national political scenerio of the country.

All would remember that the recent two by poll defeats of the ruling BJP and the victory of BSP supported SP candidates in Phulpur and Sitapur, the home turfs of the UP CM and deputy CM have tremendously denigrated the ruling party’s image and in a way led to the assumption that prime minister Modi and Amit Shah are losing their political clout consistently in view of the anti BJP opposition unity.

The Kairana seat has been vacated by the sitting BJP MP Hukum Singh’s untimely demise which was won by him by a huge margin of over five lakh votes defeating the Lok Dal candidate in 2014 after the riots that polarised the Jat and Gurjar votes to a huge extent.

The Kairana seat however had been the stronghold of the Rashtriya Lok Dal. The BJP has given the ticket to Hukum Singh’s daughter Mriganka Singh to cash on the sympathy vote and a one sided vote bank of the Gurjars who are about one lakh twenty five thiudand in number.

The RLD has allotted ticket to the muslim women candidate banking on the majority minority votes which are more than 5 lakhs, a sizeable chunk to decide the winning chances. Dalits votes too are about two lakhs in numbers and the Jat votes over 1.5 lakhs.

In all, there are 19 lakh votes in this constituency. After the successful example of the one sided victory of SP candidates in Phulpur and Sitapur defeating the BJP in the saffron vote bank turf of Yogi Adityanath, the Congress, BSP and SP have not fielded their candidates but have promised to support the RLD candidate of Choudhary Ajit Singh, who happens to be a women from the minority community.

The BJP is trying to capitalise on the majority vote bank already apprehensive of the minority votes likely to go in favour of Ajit Singh’s RLD candidate, the Dalits too may probably back the RLD in view of the BSP’s support to Chaudhary Ajit Singh.

Congress support may also help to an extent to derive votes of youths and other communities apart from minorities and the Dalits.

Sources reveal that the polarisation trend which helped Hukum Singh of BJP win this seat with a heavy margin in 2014 may perhaps not be the factor this time and the opposition unity minus BJP may work well in favour the the RLD candidate who is already having the advantage of the large chunk of minority vote bank.

The Jats and Gurjars who had inclined towards the BJP in view of the influence of the Hindu Muslim riots and played a pivotal role in the victory of the BJP candidate Hukum Singh may still be there but 25 to 30% of them may tilt this time in the favour of RLD and earlier mentor Ajit Singh whose prestige is actually at stake.

After the formation of the Congress JD(S) combine government in Karnataka and the credible victory in Phulpur and Sitapur by elections, the morale of the anti BJP opposition in the saffron ruled state seemed to be quite high, particularly after the involvement of the ruling BJP MLA in a rape and murder case in Unnao, grave unemployment and existing agrarian crisis in the state compounded with several other factors as the detetiorating law and order situation, false encounters and inflation of essential commodities.

The alleged communal hatred environment in the state and the country has also led to the consolidation of the minority vote bank to a huge extent, who are more than five lakhs and a major factor towards victory are bound to be an asset n a credible winning factor for the RLD candidate Tabbassum.

Since prime minister Narendra Modi usually avoids campaigning in the byelections it may also amount to a big loss to the BJP which is now left with the only alternative to bank on jat leaders like former minister Baliyan and the saffron robed chief minister Yogi Aditya Nath.
What’s your take, friends?

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Modi’s charisma and the anti BJP unity ! Which one will fructify ?

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If the prime minister of India Narendra Modi is weighed or compared individually in terms of his charismatic leadership stature and eloquent speeches including his outstanding politcally manipulative abilities no leader, singularly, in the entire opposition leaders’ crowd matches as far as his highly enhanced popularity graph in the country is concerned despite some of the downsliding that has started gaining ground during the last one year.

It’s also a hard fact that prime minister Narendra Modi and the national BJP chief Amit Shah have after assuming power in 2014 over shadowed the entire gamut of party leadership giving an unambiguous impression that it’s only because of former’s political charisma that the BJP has secured power in 20 states of the country including having been credited for being the single largest party in Karnataka as well where Congress and JD(S) rode to power after forming a post poll alliance. As the 2019 general election are approaching near, the over ambitious non BJP opposition leaders are trying to establish the unity in diversity by alligning together undrr the common ideological formula of defeating the communal forces and working out the anti BJP opposition unity on secular credentials.

The recent victories in the Phoolpur, Gorakhpur, Alwar and other byelections in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar where BJP was defeated badly and the formatin of the government in thesouthern state Karnataka on unity pattern between Congress and JD(S) has transmitted a new lease of life in the entire non BJP opposition parties who are otherwise scattered and see no chance of defeating Modi and BJP in case they do not unite on honest terms giving up their vested squeezed political interests.

The way after 2014’s resounding victory at the centre the charismatic Narendra Modi and subsequent saffronisation factor has resuted in an incessant winning spree in 20 states on the country with being the single largest party in Karnataka the anti BJP opposition had no option but to think earnestly on unity for 2019 and the Congress JD(S) in Karnataka paved the way for them to come together. The historical presence of almost all the anti BJP national and regional opposition parties in Bengaluru , except the conspicuous absence of Navin Patnaik of Orissa and Chandra Shekhar Rao of Telangana has proved beyond doubt that a nationalpolitical alternative is in the making for 2019 that can to a great extent create a dent to the BJP led NDA and if situation warranted even miracles can happen.

The recent prediction of the CSDS and Lokniti Mode of the Nation pre poll analysis also suggests heavy anti incumbency in the BJP ruled states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh going in favour of the Congress and more than half of the country’s minorities and Dalit’s not interested to give Narendra Modi and the ruling party another chance with reduction in 25% Modi fan following as well.

But despite all this prime minister still posseses an edge over his political rivals as a national leader of maximum liking. It’s however a universal fact that every gvernment in ruling invite anti incumbency during the next election but its actually not always as Congress ruled at the centre for ten years before losing power to Modi due to excessive corruption and Shiela Dikshit ruled Delhi for fifteen long years before losing to Arvind Kejrival.

Similarly the CPM ruled Bengal for 34 protracted years and The BJP is ruling in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chatisgarh for two three terms incessantly. It has been usually witnessed that after two terms the anti incumbency factor starts working usually.

Political analysts are of the unambiguous opinion that if Narendra Modi is compared individually with any individual leader of the opposition as of now, his stature and popularity stands too above them but if the entire anti BJP opposition transparently and meticulously unites against him and the saffron party at the regional as well as the national level earnestly forgetting their vested and squeezed interests the new anti BJP alliance can be definitely a formidable force posing him a direct credible challenge.

If we go by the performanceof the present regime, broadly speaking on theinflation front, petro products front, employment front, bringing back black money from foreign bank’s front, GDP front, communal harmony front, women safety front, GST n demonetisation front and on the front of over all infrastructural development there have been more dissatisfaction than appreciation though people of the country seem more impressed by BJP on saffronisation and majoritarianism which pays it handsomely in every election.

However, a hard fact also can’t be denied that Mamata Bannerjee of TMC, Mayawati of BSP and Rahul Gandhi of Congress consider them selves as front runners for the prime minister’s post against Narendra Modi. But whether any one of them would click against the politically invincible Modi is anybody’s guess or will the anti BJP opposition parties really unite to fight Modi’s unstopping juggernaut still remains to be seen.

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Press helicopter water sprinkling service into action to douse Uttarakhand jungle fires

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The way forest fire that had adopted gigantic proportions in whole of Uttarakhand in Garhwal and Kumaon hills of Pauri, Tehri, Rudraprayag, Karnaprayag, Uttarkashi, Pithoragarh and Almora districts and subsequent failure of the state government to douse the massive fire despite 5400 employees of the forest department and disaster management including the state police on the job, as claimed by theauthorities, it unambiguously speaks of the fact that the state and central leadership seems to be little or negligibly concerned to counter this dreaded situation on war front.

Today the government of the same party is in power at the centre as well as in the state and therefore there is no dearth of funds to tackle the fire on a credible scale.

About 1800 acres of the forests as of now have been raged by the fire and in Tehri Garhwal itself about 5 kilometre of the jungles are on rapid fire which is further enhancing with an uncontrollable pace.

In 2016 about 11000 or more acres of forests have been damaged in the fire causingcollosal loss to the flora and fauna, human and wild life.

While in the trikoot forests near Vaishno Devi Shrine when forest fire appeared two days ago, the police and the forest authorities are using choppers to douse the fire through sprinkling of water on a massive scale where as, in Uttarakhand despite so much of loss to the forests and wild life this highly effective technique has not been used till date whereas during the 2016 forest fire when Uttarakhand was under the governor’s rule helicopters were pressed into service to douse the increasing fires in the UK jungles by way of sprinking water on a wide scale and finally the fire was brought under control.

It is high time now that the chief minister Trivendra Singh Rawat and the forest minister Dr. Harak Singh Rawat, tighten their belts and press as much as choppers they can, into service with the help of the forest department and NDRF to douse the expeditiously spreading fire before it’s too late. There are authentic and confirmed reports that hundreds of the wildlife have been roasted inside the jungles on fire and if not controlled in time, can further led to more fatalities not only to the wild life but human beings too.

It may be recalled that in 2016 about 8 persons succumbed to thejungle fire while dousing it during the summers. These wide ranging fires has also impacted the temperature of the state which is usually pleasent and below 30% celcius during the summers but has enhanced tremendously thus leading to the eruption of several deseases and physical complexities as well. Two days ago the Dehradun temperature was 41% celcius and in the interiors of the hills like Almora etc more than 35 degree celsious or more.

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